Robert Baerenbach

The latest PCE inflation report came in cooler than expected, giving both stocks and bonds a boost. Headline inflation rose just 0.3% for the month, while the year-over-year rate fell from 3.7% to 3.4%, better than forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2% and declined from 3.3% to 3.0% annually.

The softer inflation data could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates immediately. New York Fed President John Williams indicated there is no urgency to act following September’s rate hike, although he still expects another increase may be needed later this year.

One area of concern is consumer finances. The savings rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.1%, its lowest level in four years, suggesting consumers continue to spend while saving less.

The inflation report was encouraging for financial markets and showed meaningful progress toward lower inflation, which could help ease some of the upward pressure on interest rates if the trend continues.

Source: MBS Highway

The housing market is shifting in buyers’ favor as more homes become available and competition eases. Redfin reported that,“Sellers outnumbered buyers by 58% in August, the biggest gap in Redfin’s records, driven by a surge in listings and stagnant demand”.

This is the widest gap since Redfin began tracking in 2013. Also interesting is that housing supply reached its highest level in more than a decade, giving buyers more choices and negotiating power.

Affordability remains a challenge, with mortgage rates around 7% and the median existing-home price rising 1.6% year over year. Pending sales and mortgage applications have declined, as high costs and economic uncertainty keep some buyers on the sidelines. Many homeowners are also hesitant to trade their existing low mortgage rates for higher ones.

In some markets, homes are taking longer to sell, prompting sellers to adjust prices and increase marketing efforts. Buyers with substantial cash or home equity are especially well positioned, although the overall sales pace through August remained largely unchanged from last year.

For buyers who are financially ready, greater selection and less competition offer an encouraging opportunity to find a home that fits their needs and budget.

Source: Redfin: Buyers vs. Sellers, August 2026

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed made the move because they feel that inflation remains elevated, while consumer spending, business investment and the labor market continue to show resilience. Higher rates are intended to slow demand and help return inflation to the Fed’s 2% goal.

Although the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, its decisions influence the bond market and investors’ inflation expectations. When the Fed hikes rates it can be seen as deflationary since it makes borrowing money more expensive and slows down the movement of money. Bond investors’ arch enemy is inflation so a push from the Fed to fight inflation can garner more attention from investors to purchase more bonds which would help mortgage rates decrease. However, the comments following the policy change put pressure on the bond market since Fed Chair Warsh’s comments were seen as “thin” and he also mentioned inflation is still hanging around.

If inflation cools and the Fed wins the trust of the markets by continuing to fight inflation, we could see rates have a chance to improve, but if the opposite occurs rates could continue their trend and increase more. Oil is also a large factor and if we can get it to drop in price it could also assist mortgage rates to improve.

Source : Federal Reserve